In normal times, Frank Hotchkiss would be a long shot to win this November’s mayoral race. The conservative councilmember who doubts traditional climate-change science and endorses a southern border wall is campaigning in a city where registered Democratic voters outnumber Republicans by more than 2 to 1, and he’s swimming against a 40-year tradition of progressive politicians occupying Santa Barbara’s top elected office, which championed the birth of the modern environmental movement and serves a large immigrant community.
But these are not normal times. This is not an ordinary mayoral race. And Hotchkiss has a realistic chance of victory.
In this year’s contest, colored by bitter political partisanship under a schismatic new presidency, Hotchkiss is squaring off against a trio of equally matched liberals — councilmembers Cathy Murillo and Bendy White, and former Santa Barbara mayor Hal Conklin — who threaten to split the Democratic vote into three even slices. Angel Martinez, a fiscally conservative but socially progressive decline-to-state candidate, could also steal away critical support for the Democrats in an off-year election, where older, wealthier, more conservative voters almost always turn out in larger numbers.