The death of Mahsa Amini, while in the custody of Iran’s morality police, has sparked widespread demonstrations against the Islamic Republic of Iran. Whether or not these demonstrations will lead to a revolution remains unclear. However, by understanding the prerequisites of revolutions and analyzing how far the current movement has come to satisfy them, we may be able to assess how close the Iranian people are to leading a revolution.
The current revolutionary movement in Iran is in essence a continuation of the 1979 Revolution, which never experienced what the historian Crane Brinton refers to as its fourth phase. After a revolution, according to Brinton, first the liberals come to power, followed by conservatives, lunatics, and finally, moderates. The transition from the third to the fourth phase never occurred in Iran and as a result, Iranians lost hope that a systematic evolution could eventually address their political, economic, social, and cultural frustrations.
There are three conditions for a successful revolutionary movement, according to political scientist Chalmers Johnson, The first is the condition of non-alignment, caused by internal or external forces, between peoples’ expectations and what the society/environment offers them. For example, economic sanctions can hobble the state’s ability to satisfy peoples’ expectations, while access to the Internet, social media, and education can increase peoples’ expectations.