The mud and boulders from a prehistoric debris flow, the second-to-last major flow in Montecito, have been discovered by a UC Santa Barbara geologist at the Bonnymede condominiums and Hammond’s Meadow, just east of the Coral Casino.
The prehistoric flow may have occurred 1,000-2,000 years ago, said Ed Keller, a professor of earth science at the university. The “penultimate event,” as he calls it, came down a channel of Montecito Creek and was likely larger on that creek than during the disaster of January 9, 2018, Keller said. Of the 23 people who perished during the 1/9 Debris Flow, 17 died along Montecito Creek.
The long interval between the two events means that the probability of another catastrophic debris flow occurring in Montecito in the next 1,000 years is very low, Keller said.