For anyone who hasn't signed up at awareandprepare.org and missed the blaring klaxon text this afternoon, South County fire areas are under a mandatory evacuation order as of Tuesday noon. Weather forecasters see 5-10 inches of rain falling in the Santa Barbara foothills from Tuesday through Thursday in what is described as the worst storm of the winter season. The approaching "atmospheric river" is expected to deliver one-half to three-quarters of an inch at times, emergency managers announced, enough to trigger debris flows. The expected rainfall is greater than on January 9 when 3-6 inches fell in all.
“This is the big event, not to be taken lightly," said Eric Boldt, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. A flash flood watch is expected to begin by 5 p.m. on Tuesday. The storm will pick up real power Wednesday night, going into Thursday. The smaller creeks will be running and moving fast by then. No thunderstorms were in the forecast now, he said, but that could change.
According to the U.S. Geological Survey, it's a half-inch of rain that could trigger a debris flow, but it might not get down too far, Boldt thought. From Wednesday evening to Thursday morning, however, the rain intensity could hit three-quarters to a full inch per hour.