The gray clouds gathering overhead are expected to deliver less-than-debris-flow rates of rain through Thursday. Santa Barbara County officials are advising people to stay alert to changing conditions via Aware and Prepare alerts . The National Weather Service is calling the mix of factors "complex" and states that a cold February has yet to reach a "normal" temperature.
As much as 1-2 inches could fall in coastal areas Tuesday night through Thursday night, and 2-4 inches in foothills and mountains. If the suptropical moisture isn't blown away by strong east winds, rain in the foothills could exceed the forecast. As of Tuesday morning, a heavy rain was expected Wednesday afternoon and then possibly later on Thursday, but the intensity — 0.25 to 0.50 inches per hour — would stay below debris-flow levels for burn scars over a year old. Snow levels will recede to above 9,000 feet, but near-gale-force winds are likely offshore.
The system, when it lands, is expected to fall most heavily in the Los Angeles to San Diego areas, potentially affecting recent burn areas there.