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Science & Tech

Rising Tides: Sea Levels in Santa Barbara

The rapidly melting Antarctic Ice Sheet is slowly swelling toward us.

Rising Tides: Sea Levels in Santa Barbara
These are projections for future sea level rise, based on mapping data used for a 2012 study of the Santa Barbara coastline. Blue portions represent 17 inches of sea level rise by 2050, plus three feet of flooding. Red portions represent 55 inches by 2100, plus three feet of flooding. Maps like this use the “bathtub approach” — assuming that everything below a specific elevation will be inundated — and do not factor in natural or man-made barriers.

Santa Barbarans are a varied bunch, but there’s one thing we’d probably all agree on: We like our coastline where it is.

Rising sea levels, though, mean that our beachfront ​— ​and quite possibly our downtown ​— ​will be fundamentally changed over time. And a new report issued in April found that sea level rise along the California coastline could be faster and more drastic than previously predicted. Especially alarming was one scenario that saw California experiencing a 10-foot sea level rise by 2100, higher than most scientists previously thought possible. Regional sea level studies, of course, can be tricky. It’s difficult to accurately assess how one community will be impacted.

So while the authors don’t know how likely such an extreme scenario is, they can confidently predict it would be a fairly remote possibility. More certain are the report’s projected middle-of-the road scenarios, which look similar to what we knew already. What we know already, however, is cause for concern.