Residents of Isla Vista and UCSB, in particular, should be aware that in the three remaining Santa Barbara County redistricting maps , current 4th District Supervisor Bob Nelson could become supervisor of Isla Vista after 2024 in Plan 818C.
Plan 818C would create a 3rd Supervisorial District comprised of IV/UCSB, the Santa Ynez Valley, and Orcutt. This plan has not ever been considered or vetted by the public and was introduced Wednesday evening for the first time. Voting analysis of the 3rd and 4th districts from 2020 indicates that Orcutt (the most conservative area in Santa Barbara County and a high voter turn-out area) plus the Santa Ynez Valley would outvote Isla Vista/UCSB. Both Bob Nelson and Joan Hartmann would live in the new 3rd District under Plan 818C, and the current term of each ends in 2024. Preliminary analysis, based on 2020 data, indicates that Nelson could defeat Hartmann by about 55 percent to 45 percent in the new 3rd District in 2024.
Redistricting plans are not supposed to take existing elected officials into account. However, that Isla Vista could become represented by a supervisor from Orcutt indicates that this is less than an optimal plan. There is no community of interest among Isla Vista, the Santa Ynez valley, and Orcutt.