The weather forecast for the week is clear and sunny, an enviable prediction anywhere but drought-plagued California. But if it ever rains again in Santa Barbara, be assured, it's entirely possible a repeat of the terrible mudslides could occur, say the experts. The rains of January 9 brought down millions of tons of sediment that ranged in size from sand particles to bus-sized boulders, but more remains in stream channels and hanging off vertical walls left behind by the high velocity of the debris flow.
"Everyone has a clear idea now of what a debris flow can do," said Kevin Cooper, a wildlife biologist and climate change unit coordinator with the U.S. Forest Service. "Those can unfortunately happen again in the same drainages." Cooper is one of the contributors to the BAER (Burn Area Emergency Response) report, the first draft of which came out in mid-January. The multi-agency group, along with the state's Wildfire Emergency Response Team (WERT), has been looking at conditions in Montecito's canyons post-Thomas flood, evaluating future potentials. Cooper was also part of the BAER teams that conducted research on Whittier and Sherpa fires the past two summers.
Comparing the conditions he saw in Cold Spring Canyon, where greenery is just beginning to repopulate the soil, "Sherpa has had a year to grow back," Cooper observed, "but the upper slopes are rockier, and there's still a lot potential for debris to move" should a massive rain recur there. In Cold Spring Canyon, moisture and a lot of soil still remain, which is good for the seedbank and active root systems. As for the Whittier burn scar from July 2017, it's an "extremely steep and hazardous area on both the north and south sides" of the Santa Ynez range, Cooper said. Though the additional moisture on the leeward side means vegetation has sprouted more vigorously, "the soil is still exposed and very loose," he said. That exposure has also revealed historic and extremely large debris flows, Cooper said, "visible all the way to Cachuma Lake."
