When I heard that the French government had identified ISIS as the group behind the horrible multiple attacks on Paris that have left over 120 dead and hundreds wounded, I wondered why. Why would this attack be useful to ISIS? After all, it is an organization that is primarily focused on Syria and Iraq. And it has been having enough trouble just maintaining the area that it controls.
In fact, ISIS has not been doing well these days. On the day before the attacks the strategic town of Sinjar was retaken by Kurdish and Yazidi forces, cutting off the ISIS supply line between its main town in Syria, Rakka, and Mosul, its largest conquest in Iraq. The amount of territory controlled by ISIS has shrunk considerably in recent months.
ISIS is also not as attractive to young Muslims activists as it used to be. Two of its most famous recruits, notorious around the world for beheading ISIS captives, have themselves been killed by target strikes. The number of young people volunteering to join the ISIS forces have dwindled, and scores, perhaps hundreds, have been trying to return home, weary of being used as cannon fodder. ISIS, it appears, is on a downward slide.